Aiming to overcome their mid-season struggles, reigning Premier League champions Manchester City will look to rejuvenate their faltering title defense on Saturday, as they travel to face Aston Villa.

After suffering a dramatic defeat in last week’s Manchester derby, City have now lost five of their last seven league matches. Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s resurgence was stalled by a late collapse in their previous outing. Starting level on points with Nottingham Forest in the Premier League standings, Villa seemed set to move into the top four with a victory at the City Ground. However, two quick goals from Forest nullified Jhon Duran’s opener and an outstanding save by Emi Martinez, leaving the Villans to rue a missed opportunity. Unai Emery’s men had previously built momentum with three straight wins—against Brentford, Southampton, and RB Leipzig in the Champions League. But that setback means they have now lost four of their last seven Premier League fixtures

Balancing domestic and European commitments after a stellar 2023-24 campaign has tested Villa’s squad depth, and they have suffered four consecutive away defeats in the league. Nonetheless, their form at Villa Park has been impressive, remaining unbeaten in their last seven home games in the league. Currently in seventh place, they could leapfrog Manchester City with a win on Saturday. Villa claimed a statement 1-0 victory over City in Aston last season en route to securing a top-four finish. Now, they aim to defeat the champions in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1993. Similarly, Manchester City were undone late in their most recent match, but their collapse was even more shocking, as they squandered a one-goal lead in the dying moments of the derby. A series of defensive mistakes allowed Manchester United to leave the Etihad with all three points, as Amad Diallo’s expertly taken 90th-minute goal sealed a 2-1 defeat for Pep Guardiola’s side. City have now lost eight of their last 11 games. Highlighting their vulnerabilities, City have now lost two of their last three Premier League matches where they led at halftime—a stark contrast to losing just two in their previous 102 such games. This issue has also surfaced in Europe, where they trail Villa by five points in the Champions League. Injuries and an ageing midfield have compounded City’s problems, while a lack of clinical finishing has further undermined their season. Despite taking more shots than any other Premier League side, City’s conversion rate is just 9.9%—their lowest since 2006-07. Phil Foden, a key player last season, has taken more shots without scoring than any other player in the league this term. Meanwhile, makeshift left-back Josko Gvardiol is their second-highest scorer behind Erling Haaland, who is also yet to hit his usual heights. City currently sit fifth, nine points behind leaders Liverpool, having played one more game. With little margin for error, they must reignite their title charge soon.

Aston Villa’s attack could again be spearheaded by Jhon Duran, who has impressed in Ollie Watkins’ absence. Watkins, Villa’s leading league scorer with seven goals, has been dealing with a minor injury, while Duran scored his sixth goal of the season against Nottingham Forest. Emery has been cautious about deploying both forwards together. Leon Bailey could return from a hamstring issue, and Tyrone Mings is available after illness ruled him out last weekend. However, Jacob Ramsey remains sidelined. For City, Mateo Kovacic and John Stones returned to the bench during the derby loss, easing their injury concerns. Rodri and Oscar Bobb remain long-term absentees, while Nathan Ake has also joined the treatment room. Manuel Akanji might recover from a pelvis issue, and Rico Lewis is available following suspension. Jack Grealish, who started his career at Villa, could make the squad, but Jeremy Doku currently holds the starting spot on the left flank under Guardiola.

Villa’s home strength and City’s ongoing struggles make a draw a likely outcome—though neither manager would openly accept such a result. The hosts are difficult to beat at Villa Park and rarely fail to score, so they may extend City’s winless away streak.

Best Tip: Over 1.5

Correct score: 2-2